ASEAN Centre in MGIMO-University the MFA of Russia

Центр АСЕАН при МГИМО

Round table "Situation in Myanmar in the Context of Major Powers Relations in the Region"

Round table

15.03.2021

On March 15, the Center for Comprehensive Chinese Studies and Regional Projects and the ASEAN Centre held a joint round table "Situation in Myanmar in the Context of Major Powers Relations in the Region".

The round table gathered a significant number of eminent expert scholars form various universities and research institutes such as Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary, Vice-President of the Russian International Affairs Council Mr. Gleb Ivashentsov; Associate Professor of the Department of History of the Far East and Southeast Asia of MSU Institute of Asian and African Studies. Mr. Alexey Kirichenko; Head of Group on South Asia and Indian Ocean of IMEMO RAS Mr. Alexey Kupriyanov; Deputy Director for Research, Head of the Center for Asia-Pacific Studies of IMEMO RAS Mr. Alexander Lomanov; Head of the Center for Southeast Asia, Australia and Oceania of the IOS RAS Mr. Dmitry Mosyakov; Researcher at the JICA Ogato research institute (Tokyo, Japan) Mr. Nikolay Murashkin; Researcher of the Russian Institute for Strategic Studies Mr. Georgy Sizov; Leading Researcher of the Center for Southeast Asia, Australia and Oceania of the IOS RAS Dr. Aida Simoniya, as well as the representatives of the MFA of Russia.

From the MGIMO side, the event was attended by Director of the ASEAN Center Dr. Victor Sumsky; Director of the Center for Comprehensive Chinese Studies and Regional Projects, Professor of the Department of Asian and African Studies Dr. Alexey Voskresensky; Professor of the Department of Asian and African Studies, Chief Researcher of the IOS RAS Dr. Sergey Lunev; Chief Researcher of the Center for Comprehensive Chinese Studies and Regional Projects Dr. Mikhail Karpov; Chief Researcher of the Center Dr. Vasiliy Kashin; Senior Expert of the ASEAN Centre, Associate Professor of the Department of Asian and African Studies at MGIMO Dr. Ekaterina Koldunova; Associate Professor of the Department of Asian and African Studies, Researcher at the Center for Comprehensive Chinese Studies and Regional Projects at MGIMO Dr. Ksenia Efremova; Associate Professor of the Department of Asian and African Studies, Researcher at the Center for Comprehensive Chinese Studies and Regional Projects at MGIMO Dr. Anna Kireeva; Senior Lecturer of the Department of World Political Processes, an employee of the Center Dr. Denis Kuznetsov and analyst of the ASEAN Centre Ms. Valeria Vershinina. The discussion was moderated by Dr. Ekaterina Koldunova and Dr. Anna Kireeva.

The discussion was opened by an introductory presentation by Ksenia Efremova titled "Events in Myanmar and Regional Consequences: What Russia Needs to Know". It, in particular, raised questions about the origins of the current political crisis in Myanmar and the prospects for its settlement. Professor Efremova has also considered the positions of the warring parties and the possibility of reaching a compromise between them, by highlighting the role of external factors (e.g. the Milk Tea Alliance) in the development of the internal political situation in Myanmar.

According to the expert, the events of February 1 put an end to the fragile balance established in recent years between the pro-army and pro-democracy factions, finally splitting Myanmar society into two camps. Having come to power in a non-parliamentary (albeit quite constitutional) way, Senior General Min Aung Hlein turned against himself a significant part of the liberal-minded intelligentsia and urban youth, who categorically do not accept a return to a military dictatorship, which they firmly associate with protracted economic stagnation and the suppression of civil liberties. At the same time, the Civil Disobedience Movement initiated by them has an extremely negative impact on the country's economy and may soon lead to its collapse.

After Ksenia Efremova’s speech, a discussion took place on the first block of issues related to the internal political and economic dynamics in Myanmar before and after the coup, as well as the reaction of the ASEAN countries and the Association itself to the developments in Myanmar. Various points of view were expressed regarding the degree of controllability of political processes in Myanmar at this stage, including the issue of the extent to which the military and the National League for Democracy enjoy the support of the population and social groups. The participants have also discussed the economic and foreign policy consequences of the events of February 1 and the future of democratic transformations not only in Myanmar, but also in Southeast Asia as a whole.

In the second part of the event, the round table participants turned to the issues related to the interaction of Myanmar with the largest regional and extra-regional powers e.g., China, India, Japan, the USA, the EU and Russia. A wide range of issues were discussed regarding the relationship between Myanmar and the PRC. Amongst the issues picked up by the experts were the China's reaction to the military coup, and its relations with the National League for Democracy and Aung San Suu Kyi on the one hand and the military on the other. The experts also mentioned such issues as the role of China in the field of military and non-traditional dimensions of security in the context of the situation in Myanmar, the attitude of various elite groups and the population in Myanmar towards the PRC, as well as such questions of how developed are the economic relations between China and Myanmar, what are the goals of the China Belt and Road Initiative implementation  in Myanmar and at what stage of implementation are the projects within the framework of the Sino-Myanmar economic corridor, and what are the reasons for its only partial implementation. The experts also reflected on challenges Myanmar faces in economic cooperation with the PRC and what instability consequences in Myanmar may have for China. Another important issue addressed by the experts was an approach to assess the situation in Myanmar from the point of Sino-American strategic confrontation and competition view in the ASEAN Region.

The participants analyzed the positions of Western countries (US and EU) regarding Myanmar and the prospects for imposing sanctions or other measures to support protesters against military rule within the democracy promotion agenda. The round table participants also considered the topic of India's policy towards Myanmar, its goals and priorities, the nature of India's relations with different factions, the role of Myanmar in Indian policy towards the Indian Ocean region and the Indo-Pacific strategy and in the system of relations in East and South Asia. They have also addressed the Rohingya factor, and interaction between India and Myanmar in the context of Indian-Japanese cooperation and Indian-Chinese strategic competition.

The researchers assessed Japan's reaction to the situation in Myanmar, the role of Japan as one of the key economic partners of Myanmar, the nature and quality characteristics of projects and economic corridors (the East-West Economic Corridor and the Southern Economic Corridor) in which Japan participates, and Japan's interests in Myanmar in the context of the Japanese Indo-Pacific strategy and interaction with Thailand, and also drew attention to the differences in the implementation of the Chinese Belt and Road initiatives and Japanese economic projects in Myanmar (both geographically and substantively). The participants of the round table also touched upon the importance of this situation for Russia.

At the end of the discussion, the Director of the ASEAN Centre Victor Sumsky and the Director of the Center for Comprehensive Chinese Studies and Regional Projects Alexey Voskresensky summed up the results and achievements of the round table. The round table outcomes are planned to be published in the proceedings collection.

ASEAN Centre
Center for Comprehensive Chinese Studies and Regional Projects